Bitcoin Stalls Near 65k as Soft Jobs Meet Oil Inflation Trap

Bitcoin climbed 0.8 percent to $64,955.5 on Friday after the U.S. economy shed jobs for the first time since February. The gain left the world’s largest cryptocurrency up 3.2 percent for the week, yet still trapped inside a $62,000 to $65,000 band that has defined trading for weeks.

Soft payrolls dialed back Federal Reserve rate-hike bets and lifted risk assets across Wall Street. Oil-linked inflation fears and fading hopes for a quick Strait of Hormuz deal, however, kept the rally capped.

July Payrolls Turned Negative

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that July nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000, versus a consensus forecast of an 85,000 rise. May and June figures were revised lower by a combined 103,000 jobs. The unemployment rate edged down to 4.1 percent from 4.2 percent.

Local government education employment dropped nearly 50,000. Retail trade lost 19,000 positions. Health care continued to add jobs, rising 22,000, though at a slower pace than its recent average.

Average hourly earnings rose just 2 cents to $37.62, up 3.2 percent over the year. The workweek held steady at 34.3 hours.

• -23,000 July nonfarm payrolls, first monthly drop since February
• -103,000 combined downward revision to May and June
• 4.1% unemployment rate, down a tenth
• +3.2% year-over-year wage growth

Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan, said the early-spring hiring pop now looks like an aberration. He still sees a 2 percent growth economy with decent productivity and lackluster labor-input growth.

For the Fed, today’s report should marginally lower the chances of a hike at the next meeting in September. However, the more determinative data will likely be the next two months of inflation reports.

Feroli’s view matches the market’s immediate reaction.

Hike Odds Fall but the Dual Mandate Binds

According to the CME FedWatch tool probabilities, the odds of a quarter-point rate increase in September slipped to nearly 42 percent from 55 percent the day before. Some trackers put the hold probability near 60 percent.

That shift helped stocks hit fresh records and supported Bitcoin’s modest advance. Yet the Federal Reserve faces a clearer split in its dual mandate. Labor-market momentum has slowed, but oil-price volatility tied to the Middle East conflict keeps inflation risks elevated. Several policymakers already showed a bias toward higher rates at the July meeting.

Higher borrowing costs can cool prices. They also risk further damage to jobs and growth. Soft data therefore buys only limited room for easier policy while energy supply remains uncertain.

• Soft labor readings lower the near-term case for a September hike
• Sticky oil prices from Hormuz friction sustain inflation concerns
• Next two inflation prints will carry more weight than one jobs miss

Traders on X noted the dovish surprise in yields and gold, yet many also flagged repeated failures at the $65,000 ceiling. The macro tailwind arrived, but the range lid held.

The $62k to $65k Cage Holds Firm

Bitcoin spent the week largely inside that band even as risk sentiment improved. Friday’s print pushed the price briefly higher, but buying faded near the top of the range. Weekly gains of more than 3 percent still left the coin well below earlier-cycle highs.

Waning optimism over an Iranian deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz added a fresh headwind. U.S. officials had described a deal as close; no plan materialized. Oil prices firmed on news of restrictive draft rules, keeping energy inflation in play.

That combination explains the muted response. Easier Fed odds support crypto in theory. Persistent inflation risk and range technicals keep actual upside limited until clearer data arrives. Earlier episodes of Bitcoin whales buying the dollar dip showed similar selective accumulation inside broader ranges.

MARA Posts Another Loss and Doubles Down on AI

Away from the jobs print, one of the largest U.S. Bitcoin miners delivered another weak quarter. MARA Holdings reported a Q2 loss of $1.60 per share against expectations of a $0.35 profit. Revenue came in at $174.9 million. It was the company’s third straight quarterly loss.

The MARA second-quarter 2026 results showed the company mined 2,422 Bitcoin and ended the period with 35,577 BTC valued around $2.1 billion at then-spot prices. Energized hashrate reached 70.3 exahash per second, up 22 percent year over year. Cost per petahash improved modestly.

Investors sold the stock more than 5 percent on the day. Management reiterated its pivot toward providing computing resources for artificial intelligence. Prolonged soft Bitcoin prices have eroded mining margins, pushing the firm to expand power capacity toward 4.8 gigawatts and pursue data-center style leases.

The earnings miss underscores the second-order cost of Bitcoin’s extended range. Miners that rode the prior cycle now face balance-sheet pressure and must diversify or shrink.

Crypto Bill Talks Carry a Trump Tax Angle

Separately, senators have floated a bipartisan ethics proposal aimed at advancing stalled crypto market-structure legislation. Bloomberg reported that the addendum, still under negotiation, would require President Donald Trump to divest from crypto-related businesses.

The same framework could allow deferral of capital-gains taxes on his crypto holdings, potentially for years. The provision has not been made public. It remains one more variable in a slow-moving legislative process.

Political progress on clearer rules would normally support the sector. The tax and divestiture details add complexity and scrutiny that could stretch timelines further.

Most Altcoins Tracked Bitcoin Higher

Ether rose 0.4 percent on Friday and 2.6 percent for the week. Solana gained more than 1 percent both for the session and the week. Cardano fell 1.6 percent on the day after an 18 percent weekly surge. XRP dropped 1 percent and nearly 4 percent over the week. Dogecoin added 0.9 percent; the $TRUMP memecoin rose 0.6 percent.

Breadth was positive but uneven. The same ceiling that capped Bitcoin limited follow-through in the rest of the market.

What the Next Data Will Decide

The jobs miss bought Bitcoin a modest bid and lowered near-term hike odds. It did not break the multi-week range. Oil-price volatility tied to Hormuz negotiations keeps inflation risk alive, preserving the Fed’s dilemma. Miner financial pressure continues to mount, accelerating diversification into AI compute. Legislative progress remains contingent on ethics details that themselves create new political friction.

Markets will now watch the next inflation reports more closely than any single employment print. Until those numbers clarify the dual-mandate balance, Bitcoin’s $62,000 to $65,000 cage is likely to remain the dominant feature.