Kalshi’s ETH Price Prediction Market Sets 1am EDT Cutoff for Jun 29

Kalshi’s CFTC-regulated ETH hourly market for 1 a.m. EDT on June 29, 2026 is pricing 98¢ on a Yes for ETH closing at $1,570 or above and 1¢ on a Yes for $1,590 or above. The contract settles against CF Benchmarks’ Ethereum Real-Time Index, a regulated benchmark aggregated once per second across Ether-USD order books.

The window opened at 12:00 a.m. EDT and closes at 1:00 a.m. EDT, with a projected payout at 1:06 a.m. EDT. Trades can clear through KalshiEX LLC, ForecastEx LLC, or Rothera Exchange and Clearing LLC, all CFTC-supervised venues.

What the Contract Says

The Kalshi Range contract lives under series KXETH and runs event code KXETH-26JUN2901. Per the listing, the market resolves Yes if the simple average of 60 one-second prints from CF Benchmarks’ Ethereum Real-Time Index in the minute before 1 a.m. EDT lands inside the chosen band. Correct positions pay $1; incorrect ones pay $0.

“Outcome verified from CF Benchmarks,” the listing states. Payout runs “usually within 1 hour of event resolution,” with this contract scheduled to pay at 1:06 a.m. EDT. The KXETH series covers ETH hourly price-range markets, listed at the open ETH Range market settling at 1 a.m. EDT. The contract lists the bands as mutually exclusive, with only one resolving Yes for any given print.

The Ladder and Where the Money Sits

The Range market shows a three-band ladder bracketing the current spot, with prices quoted exactly as the open order book prints. The three bands sit roughly ten dollars apart, so ETH will close inside one of the three at almost any plausible print:

The mirror “above” market on the broker side stacks the same strikes differently. The $990-or-above strike trades at 99¢, the $1,570-or-above strike at 98¢, and the $1,590-or-above strike at 1¢, as listed on the broker event contract at the same 1 a.m. EDT cutoff. The 98¢ on the $1,570-or-above strike is the highest-confidence line in the book, while the 1¢ on the $1,590-or-above strike is the lowest. The near-certainty $990-or-above strike is there for housekeeping, not because anyone doubts the result.

The mid-band is the contest. The $1,570 to $1,589.99 bracket is sitting closest to where the coin opened the hour, and that range is the one most exposed to a tick either way over the final 60 seconds of the window.

How the Settlement Decides the Winner

Resolution runs on the simple average of 60 once-per-second prints from CF Benchmarks’ Ethereum Real-Time Index in the minute before 1 a.m. EDT. The index aggregates Ether-USD order data from constituent exchanges and is one of the regulated benchmarks already in use for CME Ether futures and U.S. spot Ethereum ETF NAVs.

A trade placed through a retail broker app can clear through any of three CFTC-supervised venues listed on the contract disclaimer. Each venue operates its own regulated order book:

• KalshiEX LLC: a CFTC-registered Designated Contract Market and clearing organization.
• ForecastEx LLC: a CFTC-registered Designated Contract Market and Derivative Clearing Organization for Forecast Contracts.
• Rothera Exchange and Clearing LLC: a CFTC-regulated derivatives exchange and clearinghouse.

From the trader’s seat, the venue is invisible; the price shown is the consolidated best across all three books. That uniformity means a Yes/No contract resolves the same way regardless of which of the three clearing venues handled the trade. The same one-minute settlement window behind the crypto event-contract book applies across Kalshi’s broader crypto contract lineup.

Source Agency employees and anyone holding material non-public information on the underlying are barred from taking a side. The exclusion is printed on the contract page and on the rule book Kalshi files with the CFTC.

From $1,510 to the $1,570 Strike

Ethereum closed at $1,572.82 on June 29, 2026, per the daily ETH-USD price history, with the print landing inside the band the $1,570-or-above strike sits just below. The close was up 0.05% on the day. ETH closed at $1,571.59 on June 27 and at $1,576.62 on June 26, so the back half of the week has been a tight grinding range.

The wider backdrop is sharper. ETH touched $1,510 on Coinbase on June 25 in a 15% single-day move that briefly let Tether’s USDT overtake it by market cap. Per AInvest’s write-up of the session, over 150,000 traders were liquidated and $850 million in long positions was wiped out, with the Fear and Greed Index dropping to 13. The same piece documents Sharplink Gaming’s first ETH purchase in eight months, a 5,000 ETH buy, alongside Bitmine International’s 76,881 ETH add over the prior week.

Spot ETFs bled alongside the price action. U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs lost more than $80 million on June 25 per the AInvest report, with the same report logging nearly $700 million of Bitcoin ETF outflows that day. Per the daily ETH-USD price history, ETH closed at $2,295.09 on May 1, $1,620.14 on June 10, and $1,619.92 on June 24, charting the broader slide that frames the contract’s tight band.

Same Template, Smaller Coin

The same prediction-market template priced XRP at 5 p.m. EDT on June 26 with five “above” strikes running from $0.95991 at 88¢ down to $1.05991 at 14¢. The broker contract resolved against the CF Benchmarks Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index under the same one-minute settlement window. A parallel range market on Coinbase Financial Markets priced the same close in band buckets, with the $1.04 to $1.0599 bucket leading the book at 25% implied probability. Coinbase’s market ran for the same cutoff and carried the same contract terms on its own order book.

The same hourly template applied to XRP at 5 p.m. EDT walked through the same ladder mechanic, the same three-exchange clearing stack, and the same oracle. The Kalshi page for the 1 a.m. EDT window updates at the cutoff and pays out at 1:06 a.m. EDT per the listing. Once the contract resolves, the page lists the next hourly ETH Range market for 2 a.m. EDT and beyond, all anchored to the same CFTC-regulated template.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the Kalshi ETH price range contract resolve to?

The contract resolves Yes if the simple average of 60 one-second CF Benchmarks’ Ethereum Real-Time Index prints over the minute before 1 a.m. EDT on June 29, 2026 lands inside the chosen band. Correct positions pay $1; incorrect ones pay $0. Projected payout for this contract is 1:06 a.m. EDT.

How is the ETH price determined for settlement?

CF Benchmarks’ Ethereum Real-Time Index aggregates order data from Ether-USD markets across constituent exchanges once per second. The contract averages the 60 per-second prints over the minute before the cutoff, per the market rules.

Who can trade this ETH hourly market?

Any eligible retail user on Kalshi or through a broker offering the contract via KalshiEX LLC, ForecastEx LLC, or Rothera Exchange and Clearing LLC. CF Benchmarks employees and other Source Agency staff, plus anyone with material non-public information on the underlying, are prohibited from taking a side.

What is behind the $1,570 strike?

The $1,570-or-above strike is the contract line closest to where ETH opened the hour, with the contest bracket between the $1,570 to $1,589.99 band and the $1,590-or-above breakout line. The mid-band carries the 49¢ No line on the Range book; the breakout line trades 1¢ on the above-strike ladder. The 98¢ price on the $1,570-or-above strike reflects how close that level sits to spot.

When can traders open and close the position?

The Kalshi hourly ETH book trades 24 hours a day, except during a Thursday maintenance window from 3 a.m. to 5 a.m. ET. Each hourly contract opens at the top of the hour and closes at the top of the next, with payouts generally settling within an hour of resolution.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets and event contracts are highly volatile and involve significant risk. Figures are accurate as of publication. Always consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.