Robinhood’s 77-Cent XRP Bet Met a $1.04 Tape

Robinhood’s XRP prediction market for 5 p.m. EDT on June 26, 2026, priced a print at or above $0.99991 at 77 cents. The same book asked 37 cents for $1.03991 or above and 14 cents for $1.05991, after XRP had already dropped 7.6% from a June 19 close of $1.1353.

The contract did not care what Coinbase or Google showed. It paid $1 or $0 on a one-minute average of CF Benchmarks’ XRP index, and that Friday’s traded range sat right on the middle of the ladder.

A 77-Cent Bid on a Dollar Print

Event contracts on Robinhood are Yes or No claims. A correct Yes pays $1. A wrong one pays $0. The displayed price is the market’s implied chance, so 77 cents reads as a 77% shot that XRP would hold a dollar at that exact minute.

Near the money, the live quotes formed a narrow 5 p.m. XRP strike band from just under $0.96 to just over $1.06. The listing page also carried a long tail of further strikes, with a control to show 45 more.

THE LIVE 5 P.M. LADDER

That staircase is a fading bid, not a breakout call. Traders treated a dollar hold as likely, a print through $1.02 as a coin flip, and $1.06 as a longshot. The $1.03991 line at 37 cents was where the book stopped pretending the path was easy.

XRP Lost 7.6% Between Listing and Expiry

The URL dates the event to June 26 and the listing to June 19, both Fridays. On listing day, Myfxbook’s XRPUSD candle opened at $1.1452, traded as high as $1.15279, and closed at $1.1353. A week later the same series closed at $1.04906.

That 7.6% drop is the whole setup. A dollar-or-above contract looks cheap when spot is $1.13. It looks like a floor trade after a grind toward $1.05. The high from June 15, $1.29338, was already gone before this market even listed.

THE WEEK INTO THE 5 P.M. PRINT

1. June 15, 2026: XRPUSD prints a $1.29338 high and closes at $1.238.
2. June 19, 2026: The 5 p.m. contract lists. XRPUSD closes at $1.1353.
3. June 25, 2026: The candle tags a $1.01061 low and closes at $1.0416.
4. June 26, 2026: Expiry Friday. Open $1.042, low $1.0072, high $1.056, close $1.04906.
5. June 30, 2026: Lorenzo Marcek, a financial journalist, writes that XRP is sitting on $1.04 daily support, with the 20-day average at $1.11, the 50-day at $1.20, and the 200-day at $1.53.

Marcek also logged a Fear and Greed reading of 15, Bitcoin dominance at 55.5%, daily ATR of $0.04, and daily RSI at 32.62. Those figures describe the four days after expiry, not the 5 p.m. minute itself, and they match a market that had been selling for a week.

The Print Uses a 60-Second Average

Robinhood’s event page states the outcome in one paragraph. The price is the CME CF XRP-Dollar Real Time Index, averaged over the 60 seconds before 5 p.m. EDT. The criterion has to hold at that time on that date. If the feed is missing or incomplete, affected strikes resolve to No.

CF Benchmarks describes XRPUSD_RTI as a once-per-200-millisecond index that aggregates order data from constituent XRP-USD exchanges and is registered under the UK BMR. The firm says the index is the price input for event contracts at Kalshi and ForecastEX. Bloomberg’s ticker is XRPUSDRT.

The CME CF XRP-Dollar Real Time Index is the price input for settlement of event contracts and prediction markets offered by Kalshi, and ForecastEX.

CF Benchmarks, XRPUSD_RTI product page

That average is the product. A last tick on a single venue can be leaned on. Sixty one-second samples from a consolidated book are harder to shove through a strike. CF Benchmarks has said the one-minute window is there to cut expiry-pinning risk on crypto event contracts.

Kalshi’s Ripple terms make the comparison rule explicit. “At least” means the index is at the strike or higher. “Above” would have been a strict greater-than. This market used the “or above” form, so a print of exactly $0.99991 would have paid the 77-cent Yes.

The $1.03991 Strike Carried the 37-Cent Price

Once XRP was already hanging around $1.04, the dollar Yes was no longer the hard side. The 77-cent quote still demanded that the 5 p.m. average not dump through $0.99991. The 37-cent quote asked whether that average would clear $1.03991. The 14-cent quote asked for $1.05991.

Myfxbook’s Friday candle does not settle the contract. It is a different XRPUSD tape. It is still the cleanest public range we have for that day, and it sits almost on top of those three strikes.

WHAT WE KNOW

• The dollar cushion: The day’s low of $1.0072 stayed $0.00729 above the $0.99991 strike.
• The $1.06 miss on that tape: The day’s high of $1.056 stopped $0.00391 short of $1.05991.
• The close: $1.04906 finished above $1.03991 and below $1.05991.
• A same-day sibling: Robinhood also listed a 4:00 to 4:15 p.m. EDT 15-minute XRP contract with a $1.0512 target that afternoon.

WHAT IS UNCONFIRMED

• The official 5 p.m. RTI: CF Benchmarks has not published the 60-second average for 5 p.m. EDT in the records reviewed here.
• Yes or No on $1.03991: Without that average, the 37-cent strike cannot be marked as paid or expired.
• Yes or No on $1.05991: A $1.056 high on another tape is not the same as a CF Benchmarks miss.

Treat the Myfxbook range as context, not as a payout ticket. The 15-minute listing does tell you Robinhood’s own screens were still hanging around $1.05 in the hour before the 5 p.m. snapshot.

How Robinhood Charges for Event Contracts

A correct Yes still pays $1. Getting there is not free. Robinhood Derivatives switched on June 1, 2026, from a flat take to a probability-weighted commission that started June 1. The formula is k times price times (1 minus price) times contracts, with k at 10%, or 5% with Robinhood Gold at $5 a month.

The firm caps that commission at $0.01 per contract and rounds up to the nearest cent. Fees are smallest near 1 cent or 99 cents and largest around 50 cents. A 37-cent Yes sits in the expensive middle. A 77-cent Yes is cheaper per contract. Exchanges can add up to $0.01 more per side.

COMMISSION ON 100 CONTRACTS

Robinhood’s own worked example is 100 Yes contracts at $0.90. Gold commission is $0.45. Without Gold it is $0.90. Add a $0.01 exchange fee and the all-in ticket is $91.45 or $91.90 before the outcome.

THE RULES AROUND THE BET

• The cap: Kalshi’s Ripple terms set position accountability at $25,000 per strike per member.
• The clock: Trading runs 24 hours a day, except Thursday 3 a.m. to 5 a.m. ET.
• The staff ban: People employed by the source agency, and anyone with material non-public information on the underlying, may not trade the contract.
• The venues: Robinhood Derivatives routes these contracts through KalshiEX, ForecastEX, Rothera Exchange and Clearing, or North American Derivatives Exchange.

You need an approved Robinhood Derivatives account, age 18 or older, an individual brokerage account, and U.S. residency. Event contracts are not offered in every state. Instant deposits do not fund them. Buying power is settled cash.

Friday’s Tape Ran From $1.0072 to $1.056

June 26 was a Friday. Myfxbook’s XRPUSD candle that day opened at $1.042, sold down to $1.0072, rallied to $1.056, and closed at $1.04906. The low stayed above a dollar. The high never printed $1.06 on that series.

That is a $0.0488 range on a token that had already spent the week leaking. It is also a map of the Robinhood ladder. $0.95991 sat well below the low. $0.99991 sat $0.00729 under it. $1.03991 sat inside the day’s stretch. $1.05991 sat $0.00391 above the high.

JUNE 26 XRPUSD CANDLE

• Open: $1.042, a cent under the prior close of $1.0416.
• Low: $1.0072, the closest that tape came to knocking out the 77-cent Yes.
• High: $1.056, short of the 14-cent $1.05991 strike.
• Close: $1.04906, above $1.03991 and below $1.05991.

A later 96-cent XRP pin in August showed the same dollar line turning into a magnet again, then breaking. This June contract was the earlier chapter, written when the token was still walking the $1.04 shelf rather than the 96-cent one.

CF Benchmarks Changed the Index on June 29

Three days after this 5 p.m. print, CF Benchmarks planned an uncrossing change on June 29 at 11:00 London time. The consultation ran from June 10 through 16:00 London time on June 24, so it closed while this XRP ladder was still live.

The change sits in section 4 of the real-time methodology. Constituent order books can cross when they are merged, with a bid at or above an offer. The old rule kept that crossed depth in the price-volume curve. The new step uncrosses the book first. CF Benchmarks warned that contracts settled off the index could be affected, and named no other parameter changes.

June 26 settled under the old rule. June 29 switched the plumbing. Anyone replicating XRPUSD_RTI into a hedge had a weekend to retool. The 5 p.m. bet itself did not wait.

On September 14, 2026, that same index printed $1.38390, up 31.9% from the June 26 Myfxbook close of $1.04906. A dated snapshot does not share in a later rally. Robinhood listed the next obvious sibling as XRP price at September 18, 2026, at 5 p.m. EDT, and it has also sold a two-cent 9 a.m. XRP contract on other sessions. The product is a calendar of one-minute prints, and this Friday’s 77-cent dollar bid was one row in it.

Frequently Asked Questions

How does the Robinhood XRP 5 p.m. contract settle?

The exchange takes CF Benchmarks’ XRP real-time index for the 60 seconds before 5 p.m. EDT, averages those prints, and compares that number with each strike. A Yes on “or above” pays $1 if the average is at the strike or higher and $0 if it is lower. Payout is usually posted within one hour of resolution, and revisions the source posts after expiration do not change the result.

What happens if CF Benchmarks data is missing at expiry?

Robinhood and Kalshi both say affected strikes resolve to No when the index is unavailable or incomplete at the expiration time. Kalshi can also open a market-outcome review under its rulebook if the expiration value cannot be determined, but the default on a dead feed is No, not a delay.

How large a position can one trader hold?

Kalshi’s Ripple contract terms set a $25,000 position accountability level per strike per member. The minimum tick is $0.01, and the exchange may list strikes anywhere from 0 to 100,000,000 USD in one-cent increments, including levels members suggest.

Who is barred from trading the contract?

Anyone employed by the source agency, here CF Benchmarks, is prohibited. So is anyone who holds material, non-public information on the underlying. Those bans sit on the event page next to the ordinary state and eligibility limits for Robinhood Derivatives accounts.

Is this the same as a 15-minute XRP up-or-down contract?

No. The 5 p.m. market compares one 60-second average with a dollar strike. The 15-minute contracts Robinhood listed the same afternoon, including the 4:00 to 4:15 p.m. EDT card with a $1.0512 target, pay on whether the average at the end of the window is at least the average at the start. One is a level. The other is a direction.

Disclaimer: This article is news reporting and analysis of a dated Robinhood event contract and related XRP prices. It is informational only and is not investment advice, trading advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell XRP, event contracts, futures, or any other financial instrument. Event contracts can expire worthless, fees reduce payouts, and crypto prices move without notice, so readers should consult a licensed financial adviser or futures broker who understands CFTC event contracts before acting. Figures and contract statuses here reflect the cited pages and tapes as of the dates named in the piece and can change as indexes revise or as venues update rules.