Serenity’s Swing Buy of IBIT and ETHA Calls Crypto Stocks Cheap

Serenity, a trader known in crypto circles for verified triple-digit percentage returns and 578,000 X followers, has bought BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) with Bitcoin at $62,187 and Ethereum at $1,755. The trade is a swing position, sized on what Serenity described as attractive valuations in crypto-linked equities after months of selling in stocks like Coinbase and Robinhood.

In the same announcement, he named the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (CLARITY Act, the bill that would establish a U.S. regulatory framework for digital assets) as a likely negative for the sector, citing banking-lobby influence over its provisions. The bill cleared the Senate Banking Committee on May 14 in a 15-9 vote but still needs a full Senate floor vote before August recess.

How Crypto Equities Got Here

Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $128,198 on Oct. 6, 2025. By early June, it had given back more than half of that peak. The equities built around crypto trading activity fell further still.

Coinbase (COIN), the largest U.S. crypto exchange by volume, posted a net loss of $394.1 million in the first quarter of 2026 as total crypto market capitalization and trading volumes fell more than 20% quarter over quarter. Revenue of $1.43 billion came in 21% below the prior quarter. The company cut roughly 700 jobs, about 14% of its global workforce, in early May, expecting $50 million to $60 million in restructuring charges. COIN’s 52-week high was $444.65; shares closed at $165.19 on June 3.

Robinhood Markets (HOOD), which runs one of the largest retail crypto trading platforms in the country, posted Q1 2026 revenue of $1.07 billion, missing analyst consensus by roughly $70 million. Crypto transaction revenue dropped 47% year over year. The stock fell about 12% on the day those results landed, and was down roughly 27% year to date by late April.

Bernstein described the sector as “big businesses at big discounts” in a March 30 research note, estimating that crypto equities had declined approximately 60% from their 2025 highs. The firm cut price targets on COIN, HOOD, and Figure Markets (FIGR) while maintaining outperform ratings on all three. The COIN target moved to $330 from $440.

• $128,198 – Bitcoin’s all-time high on Oct. 6, 2025; early June prices sit more than 50% lower
• 60% – approximate drawdown in crypto equities from 2025 peaks, per Bernstein’s March analysis
• $444.65 – COIN’s 52-week high, against a June 3 trading price of $165.19

Serenity’s Bet on IBIT and ETHA

Both BlackRock products give direct, regulated exposure to the underlying asset. The Bitcoin trust, which launched in January 2024 as one of the first spot Bitcoin ETFs approved by the SEC, held more than $64 billion in cumulative net inflows by June 1 and dominates the U.S. Bitcoin ETF market by assets and daily trading volume. The Ethereum trust, BlackRock’s iShares Ethereum Trust ETF, holds $6.1 billion in net assets and leads the U.S. Ethereum ETF segment by size.

Serenity’s stated rationale centers on crypto equity valuations. He noted that the correction in COIN and HOOD shares had made those stocks compelling for a short-to-medium-term trade. Bitcoin and Ethereum prices drive exchange trading volumes, which feed directly into the revenue of both companies, so the ETF entries carry an embedded equity thesis alongside the direct price exposure.

He also addressed what he described as unfounded earlier market optimism. The prospect of a U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve and a broadly crypto-friendly administration had lifted market sentiment heading into 2026. Those expectations, in Serenity’s reading, have not materialized as priced. The trade is a response to where assets landed after that unwind.

The announcement on X listed specific entry prices alongside the warning about the legislation. Serenity framed it explicitly as a swing trade, with no long-term position implied.

Eleven Consecutive Days of Bitcoin ETF Outflows

Through June 1, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs had posted 11 straight days of net outflows. IBIT led that session’s withdrawals at $440.3 million, bringing the Bitcoin ETF category total to $483.76 million for the day. Over the preceding 10 trading days, Bitcoin ETF outflows reached $2.97 billion according to CoinDesk, pulling total assets under management from approximately $104 billion to $94 billion.

ETHA recorded its 15th consecutive outflow day on June 1, shedding $35 million. The broader Ethereum ETF category lost about $241 million in a single week and more than $712 million across three weeks ending in late May, per data compiled by the Bitcoin Foundation.

The selling had been building since October 2025. Bitcoin peaked above $128,000 and then came under sustained pressure from a combination of macro factors, regulatory uncertainty, and unwinding leveraged positions, according to Bernstein’s March analysis. The May-June outflow streak was the latest acceleration in a correction that had been running for months before Serenity’s entry.

For the global crypto ETP (exchange-traded product) market, the week of May 23 to 29 produced the second-largest weekly outflow of 2026 at $1.67 billion. CoinShares and Galaxy analysts pointed to U.S.-Iran geopolitical tensions, sticky inflation readings, and fading confidence in a strategic Bitcoin reserve as the main drivers. Bitcoin broke below $73,000 on May 28, with Bitcoin-specific liquidations reaching approximately $386 million on that single day according to CoinDesk.

Bitcoin at $62,187 and Ethereum at $1,755 are the prices produced by that three-week selling run.

What the Banking Lobby Is Fighting

The Stablecoin Yield Dispute

The bill’s central obstacle has been a fight over stablecoins and yield. COIN withdrew support for the legislation in early 2026 when a Senate Banking Committee draft included an outright ban on stablecoin rewards. Senators Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) and Angela Alsobrooks (D-Md.) later brokered a compromise allowing activity-linked stablecoin rewards while restricting yield on simply holding a stablecoin balance.

The banking industry pushed back. Members of the American Bankers Association sent more than 8,000 letters to Senate offices opposing the arrangement, arguing that permitting crypto companies to pay interest-like returns on stablecoin holdings would divert deposits away from banks and reduce lending capacity. The AFL-CIO warned senators that legitimizing crypto could jeopardize financial stability and, in turn, pension and retirement accounts. Law enforcement groups said the anti-money-laundering provisions were insufficient.

Brian Armstrong, COIN’s chief executive, called the yield restriction a provision designed to protect bank profits rather than consumers. For COIN, which derived close to 20% of its total revenue from stablecoin-related activity in the third quarter of 2025, the yield question carries direct financial stakes.

The Senate Banking Committee’s January 2026 draft had prohibited digital asset service providers from offering interest on simply holding stablecoin balances while allowing for activity-linked incentives. That line, between holding-period yield and spending-linked rewards, is the technical boundary the Tillis-Alsobrooks compromise tried to formalize and that banking groups rejected anyway.

Where the Vote Stands Now

The Senate Banking Committee approved the bill on May 14 in a 15-9 vote, with Democratic Senators Ruben Gallego of Arizona and Angela Alsobrooks of Maryland joining all Republicans on the panel. Before the legislation reaches a full Senate floor vote, the Banking Committee version must be reconciled with a separate draft from the Senate Agriculture Committee, and the merged text must then align with the CLARITY Act text the House passed 294-134 in July 2025.

On the Q1 2026 earnings call, COIN’s chief legal officer described the bill’s progress toward an early summer floor vote:

All that translates to our confidence that we’re going to see a signed piece of legislation by the end of the summer.

Paul Grewal, Coinbase’s chief legal officer, made those remarks before the Banking Committee’s May 14 approval. Prediction market Polymarket, which Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse had estimated at 80-90% passage odds earlier in 2026, priced the bill’s approval this year at 60% as of mid-May according to Fortune. That probability drifted lower through the week of the markup. JPMorgan analysts had described CLARITY Act passage as a positive catalyst for digital assets, citing regulatory clarity, institutional scaling, and tokenization growth as key drivers.

Serenity described the bill as shaped by banking lobbies. COIN filed its own objections to the same stablecoin provisions. Its legal team still expects the bill to become law before summer ends.

The Senate Clock

The legislative calendar is the immediate constraint. The Senate has approximately four weeks of full floor time in June and three weeks in July before the August recess begins, which means any floor vote has to clear inside that seven-week window or wait until fall, when November midterm elections reshape the political calculus for contested legislation.

Before a floor vote can happen, three versions need to merge. The Senate Banking Committee text, the Senate Agriculture Committee’s Digital Commodity Intermediaries Act (advanced from committee in January 2026), and the House-passed text all require reconciliation, per the Latham and Watkins U.S. crypto policy tracker. The Banking Committee alone took multiple markup cycles and several months to reach the May 14 approval.

Senator Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.), a co-author of earlier digital asset legislation, has warned publicly that a failed bill in this session could push U.S. crypto rules to 2030. If Republicans lose the Senate majority in November, the committee chairmanships that have driven this legislation forward change hands.

Polymarket prices the CLARITY Act at 60% odds of passing this year. The Senate has four working weeks in June before recess.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or financial advice. Cryptocurrency and crypto-linked equities carry significant risk, including the potential loss of principal. All figures reflect publicly available data at the time of publication. Consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.