Winklevoss Twins Move $67M to Gemini as Selloff Fears Return

Wallets tied to Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss moved $67 million worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum to Gemini on July 1, and blockchain analytics firm Arkham flagged the flow as a custody-to-hot-wallet pattern that has preceded past sales. Arkham’s headline on the post read: “THE WINKLEVOSS TWINS ARE SELLING BITCOIN.” The transfer does not, on its own, prove an open-market sale.

On the same day, CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost published a thread pointing in the other direction. He said Bitcoin’s UTXO net supply ratio had just printed a buy signal at -0.075 after a full week in negative territory. He pointed to the end of 2022 as the last comparable reading, when the previous bear market was closing out. Both signals are now live in the same market, and both are being watched.

What the Wallets Sent to Gemini

The July 1 transfer totaled $67 million, split between roughly $60 million in Bitcoin and $7 million in Ethereum. Arkham’s post on the $67M BTC and ETH transfer to Gemini tied the flow to a custody-to-hot-wallet pattern that has historically preceded sales. The transfer came as Bitcoin’s slide below $60,000 amid ETF outflows was already weighing on sentiment.

Arkham’s tweet pegged the Bitcoin side at $60 million, which at the prevailing BTC price near $60,068 represents roughly 1,000 BTC. The Ethereum side was $7 million, with no specific token count disclosed in the post. Both legs moved from cold custody into Gemini’s hot wallet, a step that puts coins in execution range without yet placing an order. Arkham’s own chart of the wallets showed a single end-state: coins on the exchange, ready to trade.

The ETH side of the move was modest in absolute terms but landed in a market already on edge. Ethereum was trading near $1,617.81 at the last market check, with an intraday range between $1,556.99 and $1,626.12 per CoinStats data. Both major assets are sitting near recent lows, which is why any large-holder movement draws outsized attention.

Why Custody-to-Hot-Wallet Patterns Get Watched

A custody wallet is where long-term holders park coins they do not intend to move. A hot wallet is the layer connected to an exchange’s matching engine, where orders actually execute. The transfer Arkham flagged crosses from the first bucket into the second.

Once coins land in a hot wallet, they’re one click away from being sold, even though the move itself isn’t a trade. Large holders rebalance, move assets for security, or reposition inventory for reasons that have nothing to do with price. The custody-to-hot-wallet move is a precondition for a sale, not a sale itself. The pattern is what gets watched, because it lines up with past flows that ended in selling.

A Separate On-Chain Signal From Darkfost

Arkham’s transfer alert landed the same day as a separate on-chain read pointing in the other direction. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost published a thread on the Bitcoin net supply ratio buy signal that ran counter to the selloff narrative. He framed what he is seeing as a “genuine devaluation phase,” with several indicators reaching extreme values at once.

Bitcoin’s net supply ratio just flashed a buy signal. This ratio has now been negative for a week and just reached -0.075, corresponding to a buy signal. The last time this happened was at the end of 2022, right at the end of the bear market.

Darkfost, a CryptoQuant on-chain analyst, published the thread on July 1, the same day the Winklevoss transfer was logged. The net supply ratio compares the relative weight of UTXO coins sitting in profit versus those sitting at a loss. A reading of -0.075, he wrote, “corresponds to a buy signal.” The same print appeared at the end of 2022, when the prior bear market was closing out.

He was clear this isn’t a top-or-bottom tool. Its purpose, he wrote, is to help “position oneself relative to a global supply that could find itself with either large profits or larger losses.” The signal, he added, can appear during either sharp drops or sharp rises, and “this won’t stop BTC from going lower.”

How the Net Supply Ratio Sorts Coins

The metric Darkfost flagged is built from Bitcoin’s Unspent Transaction Outputs, or UTXOs. Each UTXO records the price, amount, and date a coin last moved. By aggregating those records, analysts can see whether the network’s circulating supply is sitting on aggregate gains or aggregate losses.

Three pieces of information sit inside the ratio. Each one tracks a different slice of the network’s profit-and-loss profile:

• Whether the UTXO was last moved at a price above or below where it sits now
• How long the underlying UTXO sat before changing hands
• The combined profit-or-loss picture across the circulating supply

When the ratio drops below zero, more of the available supply is being held at a loss than at a profit, often because buyers from earlier cycles are underwater. Darkfost’s reading of -0.075 says the gap between underwater and above-water supply has been widening for a week. The pattern is consistent with a market where older holders are sitting still or capitulating, not adding. He tied the current setup to “accumulation becomes relevant,” the phase he said begins once sellers start running out of road.

The signal doesn’t predict when buyers will return or where price will bottom. It marks a transition in the supply backdrop, with the next move dependent on demand re-entering. “The next step is a renewal of demand,” Darkfost wrote, “and that could take some time.”

The Ethereum Side of the Same Transfer

The Winklevoss wallets also sent Ethereum. Arkham’s post noted $7 million in ETH moved to Gemini alongside the $60 million in BTC. The ETH leg is small in absolute terms, though it lands in a market where every move by large holders is being watched.

Ethereum was trading near $1,617.81 at the latest market check, with an intraday range between $1,556.99 and $1,626.12. Both ends of the range sit near recent lows for the asset. The $7 million in ETH is a fraction of the BTC leg, but the optics are the same: coins leaving cold storage for an exchange. The ETH leg closes out the transfer that opened the day.

Where the Twins’ Wallets Stand Now

Even after the July 1 transfer, the twins still hold over $300 million in BTC, per Arkham’s tracking. The same post pegs their lifetime Bitcoin profit at $1.7 billion since they began accumulating in 2015.

That stack is one of the most profitable early BTC positions in the market, built over more than a decade. The July 1 transfer is the second large custody-to-hot-wallet shift this year. In an earlier post on the 1,000 BTC move to Gemini on March 6, Arkham flagged a 1,000 BTC ($67.5M) transfer from Gemini Custody into Gemini Hot Wallet. After that March move, the twins’ tracked remaining BTC holdings sat near $764 million and their lifetime Bitcoin profit near $1.8 billion.

Arkham’s July 1 read places remaining BTC at over $300 million and lifetime profit near $1.7 billion. The twins aren’t the only large players active in the current cycle; Strategy’s $14 billion Bitcoin bet under water sits on top of an 847,363 BTC stack that is already deep in the red. Different playbooks, similar scale: both sets of wallets hold positions large enough to move sentiment.

• $60 million in BTC moved to Gemini on July 1 (Arkham)
• $7 million in ETH moved to Gemini on July 1 (Arkham)
• Over $300 million in remaining BTC at tracked Winklevoss wallets (Arkham)
• $1.7 billion in lifetime BTC profit since 2015 (Arkham)

Frequently Asked Questions

Did the Winklevoss twins actually sell their Bitcoin?

No on-chain record confirms an open-market sale. The $60 million in BTC and $7 million in ETH moved from cold custody into Gemini’s hot wallet, which Arkham flags as a pattern that has preceded past sales. The execution itself isn’t visible in the wallet data.

What is a custody-to-hot-wallet transfer?

Custody wallets are long-term, offline storage. Hot wallets are the online layer connected to an exchange’s matching engine, where orders are placed. Moving coins from custody to a hot wallet is the standard preparation step before a sale, but it isn’t a sale by itself.

What does the BTC net supply ratio signal mean?

The ratio compares the relative weight of UTXO coins held at a profit versus those held at a loss. A reading that stays below zero for a week means more supply is sitting underwater than above water. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost treats sustained negative readings as buy signals, with the late-2022 bear-market end as his last comparable case.

Why is this transfer news significant?

The Winklevoss twins are among the most-tracked early Bitcoin holders and run Gemini, the exchange receiving the coins. Their wallet activity is treated as a sentiment signal by the market, and a $67 million transfer is large enough to draw headlines even when the underlying sale is unconfirmed.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and doesn’t constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets are volatile, and figures are accurate as of publication. Consult a qualified professional before making investment decisions.