Bitcoin Tops $64K as Glassnode Calls ‘Structural Stabilization’

Bitcoin rose above $64,000 for the first time in two weeks on Tuesday, lifting to $64,010 in Asian trading and extending a recovery that began from a June 25 low near $58,200. On-chain analytics firm Glassnode described the rebound as the early signs of what it called “structural stabilization,” with price momentum exiting an extreme negative regime and selling pressure finally easing. The framing is now the consensus line across crypto market desks.

Beneath that consensus, the numbers are tighter than the label suggests. Bitcoin still trades roughly 54% below its October 6, 2025 peak of $126,080. Strategy, the largest corporate holder, filed its first major bitcoin disposal in the same week, offloading 3,588 coins for $216 million to meet preferred dividend obligations. Glassnode’s own data flags a growing share of “hot capital,” the short-term money that preceded sharper swings in past sell-offs.

From $58,200 to $64,010 in a Week

The recovery began in late June, when softer-than-expected U.S. labor market data and comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh that inflation risks had come down pulled bitcoin from below $60,000 back above $63,000 by Saturday. The rebound was reinforced by thin holiday trading around the U.S. Independence Day long weekend, the kind of liquidity that exaggerates moves in both directions.

Derivatives data tells the same story the spot tape does. QCP Capital noted that bitcoin’s recovery from the $58,000 support zone was accompanied by easing derivatives market stress: implied volatility has continued to drift lower, while near-dated put skew has moderated after reaching elevated levels during the recent sell-off. Spot cumulative volume delta (CVD) improved from -$241.5 million to -$12.2 million over the same window, a signal that aggressive sellers have largely stepped back.

Bitcoin’s price-momentum reading nearly doubled from 24.6 to 48.6 in the same stretch, reflecting a sharp recovery from oversold conditions rather than a return to a prior trend. At the time of writing on Tuesday, the asset had pulled back to around $63,200 after briefly tagging $64,500 in early Asian hours, back near where it sat the day before Strategy’s sale disclosure.

What ‘Stabilization’ Looks Like in the On-Chain Data

Glassnode’s stabilization call is built on four matched before-and-after readings, none of them framing the move as a confirmed recovery.

The Bitcoin market is currently exhibiting signs of structural stabilization, characterized by a transition from aggressive distribution toward a state of equilibrium.

The firm stressed the qualifier in the same note: “This moderation in capital withdrawal suggests a potential cooling of institutional divestment trends within regulated investment vehicles.”

Glassnode’s final reading is a warning as much as a victory lap. Active addresses and transfer volumes are rising, the average ETF investor has returned to profitability, and the short-term-holder-to-long-term-holder ratio remains below historical averages, all signs of a market building a base. The firm also flagged a growing share of hot capital, the short-term and price-sensitive money that often precedes sharper swings, and pointed to Monday’s whipsaw around the Strategy disclosure as an example of that volatility already returning even as profitability improves.

Strategy’s First Big Sale Since 2022

Strategy disclosed the 3,588 BTC sale in a Form 8-K on July 6, 2026, calling it the largest bitcoin disposal in the company’s history and its most direct admission that dividend obligations now shape its treasury. Chairman Michael Saylor had pledged for years never to sell; that stance ended in late May, when Strategy sold 32 coins for about $2.5 million, a step that drew wide attention at the time. The July transaction is roughly 100 times larger.

The $216 million in proceeds funded quarterly dividends on four of Strategy’s preferred instruments and the full monthly payment on a fifth. None of the preferred securities is backed by the company’s bitcoin: each holds only a claim on residual assets.

1. STRF pays a fixed 10% annual dividend on a $100 stated amount.
2. STRE pays 10% a year on a €100 stated amount, denominated in euros.
3. STRK pays 8% and converts to common stock if shares reach $1,000.
4. STRD pays 10% but is not cumulative, giving the board room to skip a payment.
5. STRC pays a variable rate near 12%, reset to keep the security trading close to its $100 par, with the board recently shifting it to semi-monthly payments.

Grayscale’s head of research, Zach Pandl, estimated the annual dividend load at $1.5 billion. Strategy’s software business does not generate enough to cover it, so when cash reserves run short, the company raises capital or sells coins. As of July 5, the company held 843,775 bitcoin in reserves and $2.55 billion in cash, sitting on a stack with a cost basis of roughly $75,700 a coin, well above the current market price.

The pattern shows a firm that funds dividends from its stack while adding to it through fresh capital raises. Strategy bought 1,550 bitcoin for $101.3 million in the days after the May sale, made a $2 billion purchase in May, and a $2.54 billion purchase in April. When capital markets cooperate, the company avoids large sales; when they tighten, bitcoin becomes the source of funds. Grayscale framed this week’s disposal as a step that may reduce financing risk and support price stability.

The ETF Turnaround Arrived, Then Slipped

The first positive day for U.S. spot bitcoin ETF flows since June 12 landed on July 2, when the funds recorded $221.72 million in net inflows, per SoSoValue data. The print snapped a 10-day outflow streak that had drained the products since mid-June, but the size barely moved the needle relative to what had already left.

Spot bitcoin ETFs shed nearly $9 billion across two months of outflows, the deepest institutional pullback since the products launched in January 2024. Total net assets stood at $74.37 billion after the July 2 reversal, down from above $100 billion in early May. The Sunday rebound to $64,010 was the largest single-day snap in price since the ETF complex started bleeding.

Glassnode called the shift a “potential cooling” rather than a turnaround, pointing out that ETF trading volumes remain subdued during the current consolidation phase. Long-term holders continue to anchor the market despite lingering unrealized losses, and the short-term-to-long-term-holder ratio still sits below historical averages, both signs of conviction among mature investors even as the institutional bid thins.

The Seasonal Tailwind and the Two-Sided Options Book

QCP Capital pointed to a structural reason July often looks friendly: bitcoin has historically averaged gains of about 7.5% in the month, one of its strongest in the calendar. Lower trading activity around the July 4 holiday helped preserve the positive momentum generated by last week’s softer jobs data.

The options market is positioning for that pattern, but it is also hedging against its opposite. QCP highlighted notable demand for end-of-July $70,000 call options, traders paying for upside if the seasonal trade plays out. The same desks flagged continued demand for year-end $58,000 put options, with some market participants comparing the current recovery to bitcoin’s 2022 price action, when the asset briefly bounced before resuming its broader decline. The 2018 and 2022 cycles ended with drawdowns of 77% to 84% from peak; the current 54% draw sits well inside that band, and the slope is steeper than the recent months implied.

The Risks Inside the Stabilization Call

Glassnode’s stabilization frame rests on price momentum, easing CVD, slowing ETF outflows, and a long-term-holder base that has not broken. Each of those inputs can turn in a single session. The firm’s note on hot capital and the Monday whipsaw around Strategy’s disclosure shows how quickly the derivatives read can flip when a single seller steps in.

Swissblock, an on-chain analytics desk, agreed that the early signs are visible but pushed back on the call:

Momentum starts the move, participation sustains it. bitcoin:native is showing early signs of stabilization as Price Momentum exits an extreme negative regime. But this time, OBV is also starting to support the regime shift. Recovery begins with momentum, but a new trend requires buyers to follow. This is still a transition, not yet a confirmed recovery.

Bitunix analysts added a separate caution: broader macro liquidity remains the dominant force shaping crypto prices, and fresh capital has yet to rotate meaningfully into digital assets. Global investment continues to flow toward AI infrastructure, with major technology companies expanding semiconductor and AI-related spending. The mix leaves bitcoin competing for a shrinking slice of risk budgets, even as on-chain mechanics point to stabilization. QCP’s own options data and Glassnode’s own caveat on hot capital sit in the same direction: the structural call is the working hypothesis, not a settled fact.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should consult a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. Figures are accurate as of the publication date.