SpaceX Stock’s Odds of a Higher Close Drop to 32% as Shorts Pile In

A crypto prediction market now gives SpaceX stock just a 32% chance of closing July above $170.86, down from 61% a week ago. Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ: SPCX) shares closed Thursday at $131.11, more than 40% below their June peak, and a Starship rocket aborted its launch that same night.

The odds are collapsing at the exact moment short interest in the stock is surging toward record territory. That combination turns what looked like a simple bearish call into a far more volatile one, for the bears as much as the bulls.

Traders Cut SpaceX’s Odds Almost in Half

SpaceX’s June 12 initial public offering (IPO) raised more than $85 billion, the largest such listing in history, and briefly pushed the company’s valuation above Amazon’s and Microsoft’s before shares reversed course, TechCrunch reported.

The prediction contract tracking that reversal is simple. Does SpaceX close July at or above $170.86, the level where the stock finished on June 30? A week ago, bettors priced that at 61%. It has since fallen to 32%.

Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com, described the pullback to Reuters as “a combination of profit-taking, valuation reassessment and the unwinding of extremely bullish positioning” after a debut that drew arguably more hype than any listing in years.

It would not be the first leveraged bet on SpaceX to go wrong. Pre-IPO traders using perpetual futures contracts tied to SpaceX’s valuation were already sitting on losses before the Nasdaq listing even happened.

Short Sellers Now Hold Almost a Third of the Float

One official count put short interest at just 1.81% of the float for the period ending June 30, based on the exchange’s twice monthly settlement data. Real-time trackers, which update daily using securities lending data, show a much bigger position building underneath that figure.

S3 Partners and Ortex track the number slightly differently, but both point the same direction. Here is how their estimates moved across SpaceX’s first month as a public company.

Short sellers are sitting on paper gains of roughly $3.8 billion to $3.9 billion as the stock has fallen, based on separate estimates from 24/7 Wall St and Invezz. Musk’s own fortune is riding the same swing in the opposite direction. His net worth has dropped to $838 billion, down more than $480 billion from its record $1.32 trillion peak.

Engines That Wouldn’t Light

SpaceX’s next big catalyst arrived Thursday night, and it did not go as planned. The company’s Starship rocket, 407 feet tall with 33 main engines, reached its final ignition sequence at Starbase, Texas, before four engines failed to fire.

The remaining 29 engines shut down automatically, holding the rocket on the pad. It was the first time a full scale Starship experienced a last second abort like this, according to the Associated Press.

Some of the engines didn’t start, triggering an automatic launch abort.

Elon Musk, SpaceX’s founder and CEO, posted the update on X. Engineers plan to swap two Raptor engines before trying again, with the next attempt expected early next week.

It was not the only jolt to hit the stock this month. Shares had already wobbled earlier in July after Musk dismissed a report about a SpaceX AI device as false.

The Squeeze Risk Hiding Inside the Bearish Bet

Almost a third of SpaceX’s float being sold short doubles as fuel for a short squeeze. If the stock catches a sustained bid, bears without borrowed shares have to buy them back, which pushes the price higher still.

Three conditions make this particular setup unusually combustible.

• A thin float: only about 5% of SpaceX’s shares were sold in the IPO, Forbes reported, leaving a small pool of tradable stock for that short position to press against.
• Cheap borrow: shorting costs have stayed low even as the position ballooned, per 24/7 Wall St’s analysis, removing a natural brake on further bearish bets.
• Concentrated control: Musk owns 94% of the Class B shares, which carry ten votes apiece, a grip CNBC’s Jim Cramer called “ironclad” when the IPO priced.

None of that guarantees a squeeze happens before July 31. It does mean any short seller here is betting the clock runs out before the squeeze does.

Wall Street Hasn’t Turned Bearish

Most Wall Street analysts still like the stock, even as short sellers pile in. Twenty seven of 31 covering analysts rate SPCX a Buy or Strong Buy, with an average price target of $242.

JPMorgan reiterated a buy call this week. Piper Sandler started coverage at Neutral, citing near term headwinds for the stock.

Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest bought the dip anyway. Her funds picked up 123,000 shares this week as SPCX sank toward its IPO price, according to TipRanks data.

Is SpaceX Worth Its $1.7 Trillion Price Tag?

SpaceX is worth about $1.73 trillion right now, down from near $2.1 trillion on its first trading day. Wall Street is split on whether that number holds. Most analysts still rate the stock a buy, but a vocal minority of valuation specialists say the price outruns the business, pointing to the same growth assumptions embedded in the IPO prospectus.

• Aswath Damodaran, NYU Stern valuation professor: told CNBC the prospectus “was written by Grok” and calculated the IPO was priced 27% above his own discounted cash flow estimate.
• Morningstar’s equity research team: values SpaceX at $63 a share, even after crediting the company with option value on Starship and orbital data centers.
• The Wall Street majority: 27 of 31 covering analysts still rate the stock Buy or Strong Buy, with price targets averaging $242.

The gap between those views comes down to how much credit investors give SpaceX’s unproven bets, orbital data centers chief among them. At just over 100 times last year’s sales, the stock trades richer than Palantir Technologies, previously Wall Street’s poster child for stretched valuations, which trades near 65 times sales, per the Motley Fool.

Fourteen Days Until the Contract Settles

SpaceX still hopes to fly Starship again early next week, per Musk’s post on X. Second quarter earnings follow in the first week of August, just after this contract expires.

Insiders remain barred from selling under SpaceX’s lockup, a restriction Yahoo Finance has flagged as one factor already weighing on sentiment heading into the back half of the year.

The wager settles on one number regardless of what happens on the pad. SpaceX has to close at $170.86 or better on July 31. Right now, the crowd pricing that contract puts the odds at roughly one in three.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Stock prices and prediction market odds carry significant risk and can change quickly. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. Figures are accurate as of publication on July 17, 2026.