Bitcoin Steadies at $65,000 as Aave and Ondo Lead the Bounce

Bitcoin (BTC) held above $65,000 on Monday while Aave and Ondo posted the sharpest 24-hour gains anywhere in the crypto market. The lift follows a second straight day of paused strikes between the United States and Iran, with Oman mediating talks over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Bitcoin’s own bounce is capped well below its 200-day moving average. The money flowing back into crypto is finding Aave’s lending markets and Ondo’s tokenized Treasuries before it finds Bitcoin itself.

Bitcoin’s Bounce Stops at a Familiar Ceiling

Bitcoin traded above $65,000 at press time Monday, marginally clear of its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $65,086. That average is now acting as support. The 200-day EMA, far overhead at $74,529, keeps the broader trend capped despite a mild constructive tilt in the near term.

The next hurdle sits at $67,516, the June 3 high. A close above that level opens a path toward $70,000 and eventually the 200-day EMA itself. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reads 53, neutral to slightly positive, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line sits just above its signal line in positive territory.

Momentum is present. Conviction is not. A daily close back under $65,086 would undo the constructive tone and open a slide toward $60,000.

A Two-Day Pause in the Gulf Buys Crypto Some Room

The rest of the market backdrop explains why traders are willing to hold risk at all. The United States and Iran each held fire for a second straight day on Sunday, after two weeks of nightly strikes and retaliation across the Gulf, according to reporting from CNN and NPR. The pause began after an Omani delegation arrived in Tehran.

Deputy foreign ministers from Iran and Oman met to discuss safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Wire reports cited a regional official involved in the mediation calling the pause a “positive signal that helps their efforts to de-escalate.” President Trump has let talks continue at every level, technical and senior, through the weekend.

CoinMarketCap’s Fear and Greed Index read 39 on Monday, close to neutral and up from deeper fear readings during the worst of the strikes. Sentiment sits closer to relief than to genuine optimism.

Why Aave and Ondo Are First in Line

Two different tokens, two different businesses, are catching the bid before Bitcoin does. Aave (AAVE) runs the largest lending market in decentralized finance (DeFi). Ondo (ONDO) builds the plumbing that puts US Treasuries on a blockchain. Both have technical setups that look stronger than Bitcoin’s right now, and both have fundamentals behind the move.

Aave Reclaims Its Footing

Aave trades near $100, holding above its 50-day EMA at $89.48 and back over the 50% retracement of its slide from $131.98 to $57.83, at $94.90. The 200-day EMA at $112.63 still looms overhead, so the recovery reads as corrective rather than a fresh uptrend, for now.

The RSI sits near 61 and the MACD is on the verge of crossing its signal line, a sign buyers are in control without pushing into overbought territory. A close above the 200-day EMA, reinforced by the 78.6% retracement at $116.11, would expose the old swing high near $131.98. A drop back under $94.90 and then $89.48 would send the price hunting for Fibonacci support at $86.16 and $75.33.

The token’s total value locked climbed past $13.6 billion in early July, up nearly 15% over 30 days, according to tracking service DefiLlama. That is a recovery from a slide of more than 50% off last November’s peak near $30 billion, tracked on a daily deposit chart maintained by Statista.

Version 3 of the protocol now accounts for the vast majority of that total, with the legacy Version 2 down to under $500 million in runoff balances. Crypto news outlet CoinDesk reported that Aave logged its biggest network-growth day in nearly five years at the start of July.

Ondo Rides the Tokenization Wave

Ondo holds a constructive bias too, trading above both its 50-day EMA at $0.3539 and its 200-day EMA at $0.3776. Holding over both averages at once suggests the rally has real demand behind it, not just short covering.

The overhead resistance at $0.4524 has held since early January. Clearing it would put the psychological $0.50 level in play, then the November 5 low at $0.5625. The RSI sits near 64 and the MACD and signal line are still rising, with the histogram positive.

• RWA tokenization – turning the rights to an off-chain asset, such as a US Treasury bill, into a blockchain token that can trade or serve as collateral at any hour

Ondo’s business is built entirely on that idea. Its platform carries more than $2.75 billion in total value locked, with over $1.4 billion of that sitting in tokenized real-world assets, led by its USDY yield token. A second product, OUSG, holds roughly $625 million in assets, custodied through BlackRock’s BUIDL fund. The broader market for tokenized real-world assets crossed $50 billion in early 2026, and Ondo controls a leading share of the Treasury corner of it.

Dominance Still Caps a Broader Rotation

Bitcoin’s share of the total crypto market has been sliding since a rough June, and a falling dominance chart usually gets read as the first sign of an altcoin season. Traders who lived through the last cycle are wary of reading too much into that signal alone.

The clearer confirmation signals have not flipped yet. A genuine broadening needs Bitcoin to stabilize while dominance keeps drifting lower, and even then, rotation in 2026 has tended to reward specific narratives rather than lift everything at once, the way Chainlink’s own climb toward the $10 mark has leaned on a similar adoption story this year.

• 58 percent Bitcoin dominance as of Monday, down from a multi-month floor after Bitcoin’s June slide
• 46 out of 100 on CoinMarketCap’s Altcoin Season Index, still on the Bitcoin side of the scale
• 55.6 percent the dominance support zone analysts flag as the level that would need to break for a broader rotation
• ETH/BTC and SOL/BTC the two pairs traders watch for confirmation, neither showing decisive strength yet

The table below lines up where each of the three tokens in this story stands right now.

Momentum readings favor the two altcoins across every measure in that table. Which direction Bitcoin breaks first will decide whether the gap closes or widens.

Aave’s Other Front Line

The rally is not the only thing happening at Aave. The protocol is fighting to keep $73 million in Kelp DAO restaked ether frozen, after a legal claim from terror victims seeking the frozen funds moved through governance and the courts. The dispute has nothing to do with price technicals, but it shows a protocol counted among DeFi’s largest now draws the kind of legal exposure that only comes with scale.

The same months brought a quieter shift on the product side. Aave rolled out a glass-styled redesign of its lending interfaces across its web apps, the kind of unglamorous infrastructure work that rarely moves a token price on its own. Aave’s governance forum is still weighing the Kelp DAO claim alongside that rollout.

What Could Unwind This Trade Fast

The pause holding all of this together is two days old. Talks between Iran and Oman are still working through technical details on vessel transit through the Strait of Hormuz, and a compromise that would let Iran manage shipping with fewer restrictions is being negotiated, not signed. A resumption of strikes would hit the highest-beta names hardest, and Aave and Ondo both carry more beta than Bitcoin.

On the charts, Bitcoin loses its constructive tone below $65,086 and opens a path to $60,000. Aave gives up its footing below $94.90 and then $89.48, exposing Fibonacci supports at $86.16 and $75.33. Ondo’s floor sits at its 200-day EMA, $0.3776, with the 50-day EMA at $0.3539 as the next buyer zone if that breaks.

Every one of those levels holds only as long as Tehran and Washington keep their fire paused.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does Ondo Finance actually do with its tokenized Treasuries?

Ondo Finance issues blockchain tokens backed by short-term US government debt and money-market instruments. Its USDY token alone carries more than $700 million in supply spread across five blockchains, including Ethereum, Solana, Mantle, Sui and Aptos, and recently paid holders close to 4.65% annualized yield.

What is Aave’s total value locked, and why does the split between versions matter?

Total value locked is the sum of crypto assets deposited into a protocol’s lending pools as collateral or supply. Aave’s newer Version 3 now holds roughly 97% of all Aave deposits, while the older Version 2 has shrunk to under $500 million as users migrate away from it, a sign the protocol’s growth is concentrated in its current architecture rather than legacy code.

Is the pause between the United States and Iran a formal ceasefire?

No. Officials have described it as a mutual pause in strikes, now in its second straight day, brokered with Oman’s help rather than a signed truce. The immediate goal on the table is narrower than a full ceasefire: securing safe, lightly restricted vessel transit through the Strait of Hormuz.

What would confirm a genuine altcoin season is underway?

Analysts watching the setup want to see the ETH/BTC and SOL/BTC trading pairs break higher with conviction, not just Bitcoin dominance drifting down. A move by dominance toward the 55.6% support zone, combined with strength in those pairs, is the combination traders are waiting on before calling a broad rotation rather than a selective one.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency markets are volatile and carry substantial risk of loss, so confirm current prices and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.