Bitcoin’s $100,000 Bet Now Depends on the AI Bubble Bursting First

Bitcoin was trading near $62,000 in early July, down more than 50% from its October peak. One of the loudest bull cases for a $100,000 finish to 2026 now depends on a crash happening somewhere else entirely. The Motley Fool argued in June that Bitcoin will reclaim six figures by December, leaning on the cryptocurrency’s historically strong fourth quarter and, more unusually, the bursting of the artificial intelligence (AI) bubble.

Prediction markets aren’t nearly as convinced. Kalshi and Polymarket traders have priced six-figure odds under 50-50 for months, and those odds have mostly slipped further even as the case for an AI-driven rescue gets louder.

The Math Behind a Six-Figure Bet

Dominic Basulto, a Motley Fool contributor who previously covered technology at The Washington Post and Fortune, built his call around one number: Bitcoin’s fourth quarter. Going back to 2013, Bitcoin has delivered average returns of 77% and median returns of 48% in the October-through-December stretch, well ahead of any other quarter.

His bet requires Bitcoin to keep drifting in the $60,000 to $70,000 range through the summer, then enter the final quarter near the top of that band. “Bitcoin has historically been very cyclical, and it’s only a matter of time before it begins to recover,” Basulto wrote. “I’m confident that it can get back to the $100,000 price level by the end of the year.”

The arithmetic actually works. A median 48% fourth-quarter gain applied to a $70,000 entry point lands at roughly $103,600, just enough to clear six figures. The average 77% gain would put Bitcoin closer to $124,000. The catch is where Bitcoin sits right now: near $62,000, only a couple thousand dollars above the bottom of that range, not the top.

How Likely Is $100,000 Now?

Not very, according to the traders putting real money on the outcome. Kalshi and Polymarket, the two biggest markets where people bet directly on Bitcoin’s price, have priced six-figure odds well below even money most of this year, and the trend keeps pointing down.

The pattern is bumpy but the direction is clear. Kalshi’s odds on Bitcoin hitting six figures this year sat near 50% as recently as early May, then fell to 27% by June 3, according to CNBC. The Polymarket contract tracking Bitcoin’s 2026 ceiling has traded more than $32 million in volume, which gives these numbers weight beyond a single analyst’s opinion.

Traders are pricing real tail risk on the other side, too. The same Polymarket data Basulto cited puts a 35% chance on Bitcoin falling below $40,000 this year, a 15% chance below $30,000, and a 7% chance below $20,000.

Why Bitcoin Bulls Need an AI Crash

Arthur Hayes, the BitMEX co-founder who now runs the crypto fund Maelstrom as chief investment officer, has a theory for why Bitcoin failed to keep pace with a growing money supply: artificial intelligence ate the liquidity first.

Hayes calculated that U.S. M2 money supply grew by roughly $1.5 trillion between November 2022 and mid-2026, and that AI companies issued almost exactly that much in debt over the same stretch to fund data-center construction. “Bitcoin never had a chance,” Hayes wrote in a June essay.

He backed the thesis with his own trades, exiting Hyperliquid, NEAR, Worldcoin and Zcash in early June and shifting Maelstrom’s equity book into U.S. energy producers. He still holds Bitcoin and Ethereum, and has floated “cheeky tactical short positions using derivatives” in the meantime.

Hayes has named three specific triggers he thinks could puncture the AI trade before Bitcoin can recover:

• Energy costs – the Strait of Hormuz closure tied to the U.S.-Iran conflict has pushed hydrocarbon prices higher, raising the cost of running power-hungry data centers.
• Election politics – Hayes expects Trump to turn on AI companies over job-loss fears as gasoline prices climb and the midterms approach.
• Public listings – SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI are all targeting initial public offerings before early September, a combined raise Hayes says could exceed every dot-com-era listing combined.

Cracks are already showing in pieces of that trade. SanDisk sank 14% on cooling AI memory demand, and some Bitcoin mining companies have hedged by splitting operations between mining and AI leasing, a sign the industry closest to Bitcoin isn’t treating the AI trade as someone else’s bubble.

Not every major Bitcoin holder treats the buildout as a threat.

Bitcoin ETFs have seen ~$4B of outflows since May 14, pressuring BTC. This is a capital rotation, not a bitcoin impairment. Volatility creates opportunity.

Michael Saylor, chairman of Bitcoin-holding company Strategy, posted that on social media platform X as his firm’s shares slid toward their lowest levels since last year’s peak.

The Rescue Plan’s Catch

An AI stock crash sending capital back into Bitcoin assumes the rotation happens cleanly, and one analyst quoted by CoinDesk warned it might not. “If AI sentiment cracks, bitcoin could get hit twice: first from liquidity leaving crypto, and then again from a broader risk-off move across markets,” the analyst said.

The outflows are already substantial without any AI crash yet happening. U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded 13 consecutive days of net withdrawals between May 15 and June 3, 2026, totaling roughly $4.4 billion, the longest streak since the products launched in January 2024.

Not everyone in Bitcoin’s corner thinks the network needs an external shock at all. Analyst Lyn Alden has argued Bitcoin needs no savior, pointing to the network’s own supply mechanics and adoption curve instead of a crash somewhere else.

Bitcoin’s Fourth-Quarter Habit, and the Year It Broke

Bitcoin opened 2026 above $93,000 and closed out June near $60,000, according to 24/7 Wall St, a decline of more than a third in six months. That is the hole the fourth quarter is supposed to fill.

The seasonal pattern behind Basulto’s call is real, but it leans on a handful of outsized years. Bitcoin’s fourth-quarter average and median returns since 2013 are inflated by massive rallies in 2013, 2017 and 2020, according to an analysis from The Crypto Times.

The third quarter, the one investors are living through right now, has no such history behind it. Average third-quarter returns run just 5.82%, with a median of only 1.84%, which means the real test doesn’t start until October.

That test failed badly last year. Bitcoin fell 23% in the fourth quarter of 2025, one of its worst ever instead of a rally. This year’s setup includes a hawkish Federal Reserve, record ETF outflows and a capital-hungry AI sector, any of which could produce a repeat.

Wall Street Can’t Agree on a Number

Ask different institutions for a year-end target and the answers span six figures in both directions. Standard Chartered has cut its 2026 target twice, most recently to $100,000 from $150,000, and has warned Bitcoin could dip to $50,000 first, according to Bloomberg reporting cited by crypto outlets.

JPMorgan puts a $170,000 ceiling on the year if Bitcoin’s role in portfolios starts resembling gold’s. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has said $180,000 is achievable on clearer regulation, and Fundstrat’s Tom Lee has floated a range of $150,000 to $200,000.

The gap between those targets and what bettors expect is wide. Options markets tracked by Galaxy Digital’s head of research, Alex Thorn, imply outcomes anywhere from $50,000 to $250,000 by December. CryptoQuant, an on-chain analytics firm, has floated a worst-case scenario testing $50,000 if oil prices and equity markets fall together.

The disagreement breaks down roughly three ways:

• The banks – Standard Chartered, JPMorgan and Fundstrat’s Tom Lee still treat $100,000 to $200,000 as the base case for December, betting on steady ETF demand and institutional adoption.
• The bettors – Kalshi and Polymarket traders price the odds of even reaching $100,000 well under 50%, and those odds have moved lower, not higher, as the year has gone on.
• The downside camp – Market analyst Doctor Profit has argued Bitcoin sits in the fifth stage of a six-stage bear cycle, with a final bottom near $40,000 to $48,000 possible between September and October.

CoinGecko’s own prediction tracker put the odds of reaching $90,000 by year-end at 18.5% in early July, not much higher than where Polymarket had the tougher $100,000 threshold priced a few weeks earlier. The Federal Reserve meets July 28 and 29. The fourth quarter, the only stretch that has reliably rescued Bitcoin bulls before, begins two months after that.

Frequently Asked Questions

What Is the Clarity Act, and Why Does It Matter for Bitcoin?

The Clarity Act is a bipartisan bill meant to set clear rules for crypto market structure in the United States, and supporters have pinned hopes for a Bitcoin recovery partly on its passage. Donald Trump’s refusal to sign a separate housing bill in late June raised doubts about whether he would sign the Clarity Act either, adding fresh uncertainty right around the July 4 deadline supporters had hoped for.

Who Is Arthur Hayes, and What Is He Doing Next?

Arthur Hayes co-founded the crypto exchange BitMEX and now runs the investment fund Maelstrom. He has said he plans to revisit his positions in early September, once the AI-linked IPOs he is watching are further along. In the meantime, he has kept only Bitcoin and Ethereum while weighing short-term short positions using derivatives.

Does the Motley Fool Have a Financial Stake in Bitcoin?

Yes. The Motley Fool discloses that it has positions in and recommends Bitcoin, along with Goldman Sachs Group, in the same piece that predicts a $100,000 year-end price. That does not make the seasonal data wrong, but it is a disclosure worth knowing when weighing the call.

How Fast Did Bitcoin’s 2026 Crash Happen?

Fast. In one seven-day stretch in early June, Bitcoin lost nearly 17% of its value, its worst weekly performance since July 2024, wiping out about $200 billion in market capitalization in a week.

Could Bitcoin Fall Further Before Any Fourth-Quarter Rebound?

Several analysts think so. Some forecasts point to Bitcoin needing roughly 125 days from its June lows to find a sustainable bottom, which would land around October. CryptoQuant has flagged its realized-price floor near $53,600 as a level worth watching.

What Would Move Bitcoin’s Price Most Right Now?

Exchange-traded fund flows reversing is the biggest lever. Most of June’s ETF outflow came from BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust alone, while retail investors mostly held steady and some corporate buyers kept adding on the dip. A return of inflows to that single fund could do more than any single piece of news.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency prices are highly volatile and speculative, and predictions discussed here are not guarantees of future performance. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. Figures are accurate as of publication on July 10, 2026.