IDC: iPhone Fold Will Take a Third of Foldable Value in Year One

The iPhone Fold is on the way, and International Data Corporation expects Apple’s first foldable to capture 34% of the foldable smartphone market’s revenue in its launch year. That single projection, issued in December 2025, frames the next six months of iPhone coverage. The category’s current leader is Samsung, with Huawei further back. The forecast puts Apple ahead of all of them on dollars, not units, before the first iPhone Fold ships.

That projection came six months before the iPhone Fold (or iPhone Ultra, depending on the outlet) appeared inside the code of Apple’s iOS 27 developer beta at WWDC 2026. The beta includes new parameters, including “foldState” and “angleDegrees,” that researchers say have no purpose on any iPhone Apple currently sells. The hardware is approaching real. The launch date is still unresolved.

Apple Just Confirmed the Fold Inside iOS 27

The clearest sign yet that Apple is preparing developers for a foldable iPhone came from inside the iOS 27 beta code. Developer Sam Henri Gold posted on X that iOS 27’s framework contains “foldState” and “angleDegrees”, two parameters that did not exist in any previous iOS release. The strings read literally: “foldState” tells the system whether a device is currently folded, and “angleDegrees” reads the angle at which it is opened.

Gold’s findings line up with what other researchers have pulled from the same beta. Multiple reports identify the strings “mechanicalAngleDegrees” and “isAngleValid” in the same framework, describing how the software reads the bend state of a hinge. A separate Touch ID and Dynamic Island code review found references to a device that pairs Touch ID with the Dynamic Island, a configuration that does not ship on any iPhone in Apple’s current lineup.

Mark Gurman, the Bloomberg reporter who has covered Apple’s roadmap for over a decade, weighed in on the same day. “Lol could they be any more blatant?” he posted on X, sharing a finding about iPad-style resizing in macOS 27. Marques Brownlee, the YouTube creator, also flagged the code references to his followers. The iOS 27 code strings that researchers have pulled so far include:

• foldState: tracks whether the device is folded or unfolded
• angleDegrees: measures the bend angle of the display
• mechanicalAngleDegrees: tracks the physical hinge position
• isAngleValid: validates the hinge reading

IDC Sees Apple Taking a Third of Foldable Value

The most aggressive forecast for Apple’s foldable entry came in IDC’s December 2025 press release. The release sets a higher bar for Apple’s first year in foldables than any other vendor has achieved in any prior generation. IDC also raised its 2026 category growth forecast to 30% YoY, up from 6% in the prior estimate.

Next year will prove exciting for the foldable category with multiple launches pushing the market to 30% YoY growth from just 6% in the prior forecast. Samsung will kick start 2026 with the Galaxy Z Trifold, introducing tri-fold innovation to mainstream global consumers, building off the momentum of the successful Galaxy Z Fold7 in 2025. Huawei’s foldables running on HarmonyOS Next will also see strong growth, with shipments expected to almost double in 2026. But the real game-changer for the category comes at year-end when Apple enters the foldable space, projected to capture over 22% unit share and a staggering 34% of the foldables market value in its first year, thanks to an expected average price point of $2,400.

Nabila Popal, senior research director with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, said this in the foldable market forecast released on December 9, 2025. The IDC release puts Apple’s expected 22% unit share against Samsung’s larger shipment base and Huawei’s volume growth, with the dollar gap coming from Apple’s $2,400 average selling price.

Francisco Jeronimo, vice president of client devices at IDC, said in the same release that Apple’s launch “is likely to boost category awareness and drive consumer interest” and that Apple “tends to be a catalyst for mainstream adoption of new categories.” Foldable average selling prices, per IDC, are running 3 times higher than standard smartphones. That is the gap that Apple’s $2,400 average selling price would widen in its first year.

The September Launch Just Got Complicated

Apple has not officially announced the iPhone Fold, and the launch date is now a live dispute. Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman said on April 7, 2026 that the device is on track for a September debut with the iPhone 18 Pro, with supply possibly limited at launch. “Nikkei report is off base,” Gurman posted, rejecting a separate Asia-based report that warned of delays.

The Nikkei report, picked up by 9to5Mac the same day, cited multiple people briefed on Apple’s engineering test phase. The sources said issues had surfaced during early test production that were more complex than Apple expected, and that some component suppliers had been warned their production schedules may be pushed back. One source told Nikkei: “It’s true that more issues than expected have emerged during the early test production phase, and additional time will be needed to resolve them and make necessary adjustments. The current situation could put the mass production timeline at risk.”

Barclays analyst Tim Long had already floated a December ship date before the Nikkei story. Long’s note suggested the iPhone Fold would launch later than the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max in September, a pattern Apple has used before with the iPhone X in 2017, the iPhone XR in 2018, and the iPhone 14 Plus in 2022. Gurman later said there was “no doubt” about that launch offset. Nikkei’s April report lines up with the December timing Barclays had already named.

The iOS 27 developer beta, which Apple has shipped, points to a device whose software is being readied for a fall rollout. IDC’s release described Apple’s foldable as arriving “at year-end” 2026. The iPhone 18 Pro split launch coverage puts the iPhone 18 Pro in September 2026, with the standard iPhone 18 following in spring 2027. The launch window is September per Gurman, December per Barclays and IDC.

The Hardware Behind the iPhone Fold

The most concrete look at the iPhone Fold’s hardware came on June 7, 2026, when leaker Sonny Dickson shared metal dummy units of the device. Photos published in the iPhone Fold dummy unit leak from June 7 show a book-style foldable with a roughly 7.8-inch inner OLED display and a 5.5-inch outer display. When closed, the dummy’s footprint is “slightly shorter and squatter than modern iPhones, almost like a passport-style form factor,” 9to5Mac reported.

The dummy units show two external rear cameras, an inner camera paired with a second front-facing camera, and a side-button Touch ID sensor in place of Face ID. Dickson’s photos suggest Apple may launch the iPhone Fold in a single white color, a tighter palette than the two-color option Bloomberg’s Gurman had previously flagged. Dickson’s track record on dummy units is mixed, but the dimensions line up with analyst Ming-Chi Kuo’s earlier specs.

Kuo’s forecast, which 9to5Mac and PhoneArena have cited, lays out the rest of the spec sheet the dummy units cannot show. Apple’s first foldable is expected to use dual 48-megapixel rear cameras and a four-camera array total, with the inner display described as “crease-free.” The iPhone Fold specs that have been reported to date:

Nikkei Details iPhone Fold Engineering Setbacks

The most uncomfortable report for Apple’s September plans is the Nikkei engineering piece, published April 7, 2026 in the engineering problems report that could delay the iPhone Fold. Citing multiple sources briefed on the test phase, Nikkei reported that foldable iPhone issues are “more complex and are taking more time to resolve than Apple had expected.” The result, in the worst case, is a multi-month delay to first shipment.

Nikkei’s sourcing is two-pronged. The publication cites both component suppliers who received production-schedule warnings and “apparent sources inside Apple.” The supply chain warnings affect multiple parts, not a single bottleneck. 9to5Mac noted that Barclays’ December 2026 timing had already set expectations for a later launch, so Nikkei’s report may be filling in detail on a schedule that was always staggered, rather than confirming a fresh slip. Apple’s own September plans, the publication argued, are not contradicted by Nikkei’s reporting.

The $2,400 Price Tag and What Buyers Get

IDC’s $2,400 average selling price for the iPhone Fold is the only number anyone has attached to the device. Apple has not announced a price. The figure is a projection, not a quote, but it is the number behind IDC’s 34% value share call. A $2,400 iPhone would land in the same neighborhood as a high-storage MacBook Pro, well above the $1,000 to $1,500 most iPhone buyers spend on a new device.

The category today is led by Samsung’s Galaxy Z Fold 7, the device the IDC release credits with building the “momentum” of the foldable market in 2025. Huawei’s HarmonyOS Next foldables will add volume. Apple’s $2,400 ASP would set a new ceiling, one that IDC says will be tested in 2026.

The foldable smartphone category is small compared to the standard market. IDC’s December release put 2025 foldable shipments at 20.6 million units, against a traditional smartphone market measured in the billions. The category is also set to grow fast: IDC projects 30% year-over-year growth in 2026 and a 17% CAGR through 2029.

The vendors expected to compete in 2026, and what IDC says each is bringing:

How Samsung and Huawei Are Responding

Samsung’s response to Apple’s late entry is already in motion. IDC’s December release says Samsung will launch the Galaxy Z Trifold in Q1 2026, “introducing tri-fold innovation to mainstream global consumers, building off the momentum of the successful Galaxy Z Fold7 in 2025.” Samsung shipped the Z Fold 7 in 2025, and the trifold is its bid to defend the high end of the foldable market before the iPhone Fold arrives.

Huawei is positioned as the volume challenger. IDC expects Huawei’s HarmonyOS Next foldables to “almost double” in shipments during 2026. The foldable category grew 10% in 2025 to 20.6 million units, and IDC projects 30% YoY growth in 2026. The category is small enough that even a fraction of Samsung’s volume can clear 34% of value, which is the path IDC has Apple walking in its first year.

Frequently Asked Questions

When is Apple releasing the iPhone Fold?

Apple has not announced an official date. The Mark Gurman note on the iPhone Fold timing posted April 7, 2026 said the device is on track for a September debut with the iPhone 18 Pro, while the foldable market forecast from December 2025 said the iPhone Fold would arrive at year-end. A Barclays analyst had previously pointed to a December ship date.

How much will the iPhone Fold cost?

IDC expects an average selling price of $2,400, with the device taking a third of the category’s revenue in 2026. Apple has not announced pricing. The figure is a projection, not an Apple price quote.

What did the iOS 27 beta reveal about the iPhone Fold?

The iOS 27 developer beta, unveiled at WWDC 2026, contains framework strings including “foldState” and “angleDegrees” that have no purpose on any current iPhone. A separate Macworld code review found references to a device that combines Touch ID with the Dynamic Island. The iOS 27 beta is live for developers.

Will the iPhone Fold use Face ID or Touch ID?

The dummy units shared by Sonny Dickson on June 7 show a side-button Touch ID sensor and no Face ID cutout. Macworld’s review of the iOS 27 code points to the same configuration, which does not exist on any shipping iPhone.

Is the iPhone Fold the same as the iPhone Ultra or iPhone Ultra Fold?

Apple has not confirmed a name. 9to5Mac and other outlets have used iPhone Ultra and iPhone Ultra Fold in recent reporting, while the code strings inside iOS 27 do not contain a product name.